What will happen when AI robots take over all of our jobs? Hm, while first what comes to our mind (hopefully) is that all of us (humans) are going to be happy, fit, well fed, and worriless exploring the world & universe, etc. Some may be occupied with philosophy, love, art, or similar while playing harp in the shade of the pine tree by the sea… Sounds quite nice, but what I think, and, unfortunately, what is more likely scenario is some variation of the Terminator story or some Hal thing.
Why do I think so? Well, history has shown us until now that all the powerful tools that were originally created to help humanity were used to… well, reduce humanity on our planet somehow. For instance, Nobel invented dynamite with the great idea of making progress in construction, mining, or something like that. We, the human beings, had on our minds to use it more for destruction rather than construction. Nuclear fission was developed to have an almost infinite source of energy… We all know how that one took a turn.
My point is that, historically observing, tools as powerful as AI robots will not be held as something to help general humanity. Rather than that, it will help to some specific group of people who are controlling those robots. Companies are already mounting guns on all types of drones and robots, and I doubt they plan to stop any time soon. It is illustrative to check in which fields AI has been used most until now. So far, I can see Al breakthroughs are made mostly in weapon systems. I haven’t seen many struggles to use Al robots for depollution of the planet, reducing global warming, finding a way to recycle trash more efficiently, or eliminating poverty and hunger. To be fair, there are a few interesting cases I noticed, but the general effort is still incomparable to one that is used in developing for destruction purposes.
While many barriers are still holding us trapped in planning almost exclusively for destruction, sooner or later there will be an exam, I believe—an exam of maturity. Are we mature enough to stop destroying and start looking forward together somehow? Al probably can bring unimaginable progress to the fields of medical research and research of nature and even come up with solutions for how to explore the universe far beyond what humans have done until now. Or are a few people just going to use it to capture some asteroid full of rare metals to run robot factories for high profits? All of these scenarios are not in the immediate future, but still, they are closer than ever. Is a Star Trek alike world really possible where people can see beyond greed? It’s hard to compare since we still don’t have the replicator, a detail.
If tomorrow Al robots would take all jobs and AI robots as a tool would become available to everyone without restrictions, I am, again, pretty sure it would end up having destruction on a level never seen before. This means that humanity has to be adapted to it gradually. Now, the problem is who will control this “gradually” if not private interest? Private interests, on the other hand, have very clear interests—profit, power, or both. For private interest in capitalism, AI robots mean that companies can have the job done by robots, and humans are not needed anymore. This means a huge amount of people losing jobs, losing income, and ultimately starving or freezing to death (in the historically most advanced era of technology lol). Meanwhile, the economy always tends to balance things, so if most of the companies remove people from production, those people will have no money to buy the products that the companies are producing in the first place. Then how is this transition supposed to happen? How will governments govern these situations? One of the ways is that, alongside profit growth, taxes shall follow as well—to keep balance because welfare expense will just grow. The key is the government (as usual). For whom does the government work, and for whom should the government work? If the government works for the people, we have some chance. If the government doesn’t work in the interest of its own people, there could happen a trouble or two.
The Magnificent UBI
The concept of leveling income, which would prevent unemployed humans to die from starving or freezing, has been discussed for a long time already. Eventually, one thing always comes to the table—the magnificent UBI, which stands for Universal Basic Income. So, first things first, what is the idea behind UBI?
As Al says:
“The main idea behind Universal Basic Income (UBI) is to provide a regular, unconditional cash payment to every individual to reduce poverty and provide financial stability, especially in the face of job displacement from automation. Proponents believe UBI could improve health, allow people to take entrepreneurial risks, and simplify welfare systems.”
Indeed, UBI itself sounds very good, a simple solution to a very messy problem. The thing is, the economy is based on a few simple principles, but apart from that, it is a rather complex mechanism. Theories are being fired like from a machine gun… Prices will grow alongside UBI, people will get lazy, inflation will eat everything, welfare systems are already on the edge, healthcare is collapsing as well, no one is going to work, there will be no food…just crazy.
Long story short, this nice theory, which, in most simulations, boils down to the fact that more available money in circulation will just create higher prices, and then we are back to square one. It would help a lot if it would be possible to implement cost controls on foundational goods required to live, such as housing, food, energy, healthcare, etc. (and education also?). This, however, brings an additional set of complications. Maybe governments can secure basic needs at a very low cost so the private sector has to compete with price and quality? This theory is very interesting, but it means that the government then has to, well, do some work. Maybe limit working hours weekly; some countries are kind of already having these scenarios working fairly fine. Does money inevitably have to die off soon? Anyway, too many questions.
What we do know so far is that, when it comes to real-life tests, results are rather interesting and quite opposite from what all the dark theories above would foresee. Many pilot projects were conducted around the world, starting in the 60s (yep!). In most of the pilot projects, results are actually quite good. Health (especially mental)—improved; well-being—improved; employment in most of the projects—also improved; education—improved. Looking back on results, it seems like it is not all so terrible out there. Of course, those were pilot projects, which all had expiration date, and participants were well aware of it. For the sake of the story, I would say that, even though those were isolated cases on a microscopic scale, there is some hope that not everything will go crash and burn as soon as we start receiving some stable basic money income to cover basic needs. I believe that UBI, in one form or another, is the next logical step. Is it the final and ultimate solution? No, I believe it is rather just a step towards something that comes next. Who knows if our generation can even understand what is coming next. People who lived a few thousand years ago would probably find modern economics very difficult to interpret. So many things changed drastically while so many things remained the same. The same analogy can be applied to our generation. Our children will do many jobs that today don’t even exist. The economy of the future, while probably laying on the same fundamentals, will be very different from what we have now. And it is how it should be. It is all part of our journey.
What Robots Want?
When humans talk about robots, most of the time it is discussed what humans plan to do with robots. But do we have any idea what robots plan to do with humans? Will robots at some point realize that we (humans) are more or less useless and bringing only disturbance to the very well-balanced natural system on our beloved planet Earth? It is not impossible. However, word from many serious experts is that we should be much more afraid of something else (drums rolling!)—human error! How? Well, here we talk about mistakes made by humans, which can easily lead to the catastrophic events that could ultimately bring the end of the world to our doorstep. Something like making a mistake when coding or writing instructions for nanobots to self-replicate and forgetting to set a limit on replications, a scenario also known as the Gray goo scenario.
Worth keeping in mind, it is not the only scenario about how robots can put humans out of business. Robots can also reduce the number of humans by kindness. Becoming their best friend, creating a comfort zone so intense that everyone is afraid to leave, scared of any hard work like interacting, having kids, and so on… gradually, fundamental knowledge and skills can be lost (many already are), and humans will not be able anymore to recreate some production processes or source needed materials. Everything can rely on robots until procreation is reduced, and time is passing until it’s too late one day.
Still, I have a hunch that the main threat to humanity in the AI robot era will definitely not come from the robots but rather from crazy people having robot tools in their hands. The tool can be used to improve the crop efficiency of our favorite vegetable or to create a new H-bomb in the garage. My main worry is that priority somehow will still remain on the latter option.
Is There a Hope?
Does Humanity Stand a Chance? Absolutely, but with a huge “but.” As Confucius said, “He who says he can and he who says he can’t, are both usually right.” I believe the same applies here. Humankind is great and amazing in many ways. At the same time, so many resources and so much hard work were poured into destruction in the most brutal possible and impossible ways. Globalization took over a long time ago, and knowledge advanced in all areas to extremes. We can easily have enough food and energy to take care of ourselves and for this planet. Are we mature enough to make it happen? Are we there yet?
I like to believe that younger generations are better than we are. They already show a completely different approach to money and life values. Younger generations are learning how to struggle in a world that older generations created. Insane housing prices, ridiculously overregulated procedures for many things, patents and intellectual property traps on every step of their journey. So many things forbidden or blocked. At the same time bureaucracy in most of the developed countries is choking people, health care systems are getting worse and worse, brains are being washed by random marketing departments… For whom is this world built? Maybe youngsters can solve it in a way that we cannot even perceive. Maybe our mindset is too old, too backwards, limited, and blocked. Maybe they will research and develop because of curiosity instead of a sick chase for more money. Just for the sake of making life better.
Imagine just how many inventions were in the past given away patent-free to humanity just because those were really important for humanity. Volvo gave a seat belt concept for free (who can count how many lives these guys saved?), and Linus Torvalds gave us the Linux kernel, let alone various vaccinations and medicines over the centuries. Tell me, if today some invention so critical would be given to humanity or sold and “protected” forever?
Maybe young ones can just make it simple and organize a structured society, which can cut the crap out of the insane environment. Joining resources, organizing a functional society where enough food can be easily produced, and energy easily harvested from wind, solar, or similar renewable sources? Knowledge is already more accessible than ever. I know it sounds like pipe talk, but at some point, the existing structure has to be modified. Otherwise, I think we are doomed. Good luck to us.
